Councils warn of missing Londoners in census data

London boroughs have warned that London's census data must be treated with "extreme caution".

In response to the publication of the 2021 Census results, cross-party group London Councils has cautioned that it is likely that the number of Londoners has been significantly undercounted, which could lead to problems in future funding allocations. London Councils is an umbrella body which represents all 32 boroughs and the City of London Corporation.

According to the census data, in March 2021, London's population was almost 300,000 (3 per cent lower) than the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) previous prediction for 2021. In some boroughs, the numbers was almost a quarter lower than expected.

In London, it is estimated that around £4 billion of local authorities' government funding is directly or indirectly linked to population data from the census. London Councils also warned that these figures will have an impact on the funding of other public services such as the NHS, police and fire services. Census data is used by central and local government in policy making and the planning and delivery of services.

The census was carried out during the third lockdown in March 2021. Local authorities are concerned that during this time, many residents had temporarily relocated out of London, back to their family homes, including students, young people on furlough and people from abroad. Lack of word-of-mouth communication and public advertising due to the lockdown could also have had an impact on people completing the census.

Other challenges around accurately assessing the London population were also raised by London Councils, such as homelessness, language barriers and digital exclusion. According to London Councils, concern was raised at the time about the emphasis on digital engagement with Census 2021, as an estimated 270,000 people in London are offline and 2 million have low levels of digital engagement. They warned that a combination of these factors means that this census data is particularly problematic.

It is estimated that 10 per cent of Londoners were missed by the 2011 Census and it is feared even more will be missed by Census 2021.

London Councils is calling on the ONS ensure a rigorous statistical process to adjust for London's pandemic-related population dip, when it produces its 2021 and 2022 population estimates, which will be used for funding calculations for future years. London Councils has also called for ongoing dialogue with the ONS to address these issues, including using other data sources, such as the Schools Census for an accurate and robust approach to measuring the population.

Chair of London Councils, Cllr Georgia Gould, said:

    “Census 2021 took place during the extraordinary circumstances of the Covid-19 pandemic and a national lockdown, so this snapshot data must be treated with extreme caution.

    “The census is a really important tool for policy and decision makers. Accurate census data matters for Londoners because it helps determine government funding allocations to local authorities. Billions of pounds for frontline services are at stake.

    “Counting London’s diverse population is an incredible challenge even at the best of times due to our high levels of migration, homelessness and population churn. The lockdown will have undoubtedly made this worse, particularly for communities who suffer from digital exclusion.

    “It’s a bitter irony that it’s often the Londoners with the lowest census response rates who most depend on local authority support – but even small inaccuracies in population counts can seriously undermine future service provision.

    “We are concerned that, without looking at the data in the context of the challenges the pandemic created, Londoners will lose out.”

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