Next general election will be decided in north of England

The Onward think tank has claimed that the north of England will be the principal battleground in the next general election.

The think tank’s study suggested that Labour could regain 31 seats in the north, Midlands and north Wales if 2019 Conservative voters switched back to their preferred party, but only three southern seats would change hands, suggesting that a southern ‘blue wall’ ready to fall is misleading.

According to the analysis, 60 per cent of battleground seats at the next election will be in northern England compared with 20 per cent in the south and the Conservatives have a chance to gain ground in most of these seats. Constituencies that could be at risk of falling to the Tories include Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford.

As many as 36 additional northern Labour seats would be vulnerable to the Tories at the next general election if overall vote share is in line with three years ago.

It also forecast that 49 seats in London and the south-east are drifting away from the Tories and could fall in two or three elections’ time.

Will Tanner, director of Onward, said: “The next election, like the last, will be won in the north of England. While the south is steadily becoming less Conservative over time, there is no blue wall waiting to fall across the home counties in two years’ time. But there are dozens of traditional Labour seats in the north that could yet switch.”